The ITF estimates that CO2 emissions from freight transport in general will grow by 290%, but expects airfreight specifically to quadruple by 2050, rising from 150m tonnes in 2010 to 767m tonnes in 2050: an increase of 411%. Partly responsible is the expected increase in transport distances; whereby a shift in trade patterns, (specifically the North Pacific corridor overtaking the North Atlantic as the main trading route), is expected to increase distances travelled by 12%. Freight is also predicted to exceed passenger traffic as the main source of CO2 emissions from surface transport.
In 2010, airfreight represented only 0.27% of worldwide cargo movement, but this is expected to increase to 0.36% by 2050. Airfreight aside, 85% of total international freight is currently transported by sea, only 9% by road and the rest (a mere 6%) by rail. The ITF predicts sea will continue to be the predominant method of freight transport in 2050 but its total percentage is expect to decline slightly, to around 83%, as a consequence of upsurge in road freight.
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CO2 emissions from airfreight to rise faster than other transport
The International Transport Forum (ITF) has predicted that carbon emissions from global air cargo will grow faster than those from road, rail or sea.
